AUTHORS:

Butoto Imani wa Rusaati, Jun Won Kang

ABSTRACT:

Lebrunia bushaie Staner is an endangered medicinal plant that is endemic in the Democratic Republic of
Congo (DRC). In this study, its current and future suitable distribution habitats were assessed using two
Global Circulation Models (GCMs) HadGEM3-GC3.1-LL” (Third Hadley Centre Global Environment Model
in the Global Coupled Configuration 3.1) and MIROC6 (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate)
under twoShared Socioeconomic Pathways (ssp) scenarios, ssp126 and ssp245 at the horizon 2050.
Potential habitat predictions for L. bushaie were performed using MaxEnt software. The area under the
curve (AUC˃ 0.90) revealed a high level of prediction for the current and future scenarios. Seasonal
Temperature (Bio4), and isothermality (Bio3) were the variables with the greatest influence on the
distribution of L. bushaie. The current distribution that is highly suitable for this plant corresponds to the
habitat in which this species was inventoried. Furthermore, the projected future suitable area of
L. bushaie based HadGEM3-GC3.1-LL and MIROC6 is expected to increase under the ssp126 and ssp245
scenarios by 2050.

KEYWORDS:

Climate change, Democratic Republic of Congo, Lebrunia bushaie Staner

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